I am really excited. Today I found a mathematical theorem closely related to Nassim Taleb’s Turkey Problem . In this post I’ll just retell the turkey problem as stated by Taleb, the next post will include the mathematical theorem that I just found today (so you can give me a couple of minutes to digest this math concept); finally, the third post will include the link between them. Ok, here we go.
The Turkey Problem
Imagine you are a turkey, in a really nice farm. Everything is awesome. Today is January second, and you just woke up in this great farm – you don’t remember where you were before, but that’s ok.
Time goes by, let’s say a week, and you notice that other animals, like, say, the pigs, get taken away by these two legged creatures only to never be seen again. A couple of months go by, and every week, you see them take away at least one pig, and it never comes back. Something bad must happen to them, you assume. Now, eight months have gone by, from your previous observations you come up with a pretty clever theory (according to your turkey brain):
Careful observation indicates that the two legged creatures take away pigs, and only pigs, so turkeys, such as yourself, never get taken away by the two legged animals.
Then, as you clever reader might have imagined, November comes…
If you are still curious and can’t wait for the next post to know what’s going on, the title contains a huge hint on what you should be looking for… See you next time!
Think Context 